MONDAY, May 19, 2025 (HealthDay News) — New predictive models can accurately distinguish mild, moderate and severe pneumonia in children, helping determine which kids need hospitalization or intensive care.
Children with a runny nose and congestion are 41% less likely to be suffering from moderate or severe pneumonia, researchers found.
On the other hand, kids with abdominal pain who are struggling to breathe and have an elevated heart rate and low levels of blood oxygen are at greater risk of serious pneumonia, researchers reported May 13 in The Lancet.
“Emergency departments around the world see thousands of children with pneumonia every day, but until now, we haven’t had a reliable way to predict who’s truly at risk of getting sicker,” senior researcher Dr. Nathan Kuppermann, director of the Children's National Research Institute in Washington, D.C., said in a news release.
Pneumonia is one of the most common infections in kids worldwide, and represents one of the most frequent reasons children are hospitalized in the U.S., researchers said in background notes.
About 5% of kids with pneumonia become severely sick and develop serious complications, researchers said.
“While only a small percentage of children with pneumonia will have severe outcomes, it’s crucial to identify these patients early so clinicians can act swiftly and aggressively to prevent further deterioration in these children,” said lead researcher Dr. Todd Florin, an associate division head for academic affairs and research at Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital of Chicago.
“It is also important to know if the illness will likely be mild, in order to avoid potentially unnecessary tests or treatments or unnecessary hospital stays,” Florin said.
For the study, researchers analyzed data on more than 2,200 children between 3 months and 14 years of age with pneumonia who were seen at ERs located around the world for treatment. The study involved 73 ERs across 14 countries.
Results showed that certain symptoms were associated with increased risk of moderate or severe pneumonia:
52% higher risk for abdominal pain.
57% increased risk for refusal to drink.
64% increased risk for antibiotic treatment given before ER visit.
2.8 times higher risk with labored breathing.
64% higher risk for elevated heart rate.
These symptoms are typically evaluated in patients with respiratory illness, which should make it easier for doctors to implement the predictive models in their hospitals, researchers said.
“This model gives clinicians a practical tool, rooted in data, to guide that decision and ultimately improve care and outcomes,” Kuppermann added.
The study also included models that included chest X-rays, which found greater risk of severe pneumonia if multiple regions of the lung are affected, researchers said.
“Our pediatric pneumonia predictive models show good-to-excellent accuracy,” Florin said. “Once externally validated, our models will provide evidence-based information for clinicians to consider when evaluating pneumonia in children.”
More information
Stanford Medicine has more on pneumonia in children.
SOURCE: Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital of Chicago, news release, May 14, 2025